Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No. 2, 2026

The Pitfalls of “Over-Modeling” in Economic Research and Their Corrections

(Abstract)

Lu Ming

Current economic research is beset by two pitfalls of “over-modeling.” The first arises when the process of model construction fails to adequately incorporate real-world contexts—“ignoring reality to make the model work”—thereby generating misleading conclusions about real-world problems. The second stems from an excessive pursuit of methodological complexity and precision—“sacrificing the problem to make the method work”—which renders economic research incomplete in its attention to real-world issues. Appropriate models of China’s economy must more fully and accurately reflect its characteristics as a major country and transitioning economy. In empirical research, methodological inferences of causality should not obscure real-world experience, facts, and causal relationships. For studies with significant theoretical and policy implications, scholars must strike a balance between the importance and urgency of the issue and the complexity and precision of the model, while fully leveraging the strengths of survey research and case studies. By pursuing appropriate modeling and methodological diversity, economics can more effectively respond to major real-world issues and promote the construction of an independent knowledge system for Chinese economics.